UPDATE: This week’s Free Times had barely settled into news racks before this cover story took on more relevance when Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer held a news conference at the State House to call on Gov. Mark Sanford to resign. Click here to read our story on Bauer’s call for the governor to step down. 

News media representatives swarm Gov. Mark Sanford at the State House on June 26, two days after he began his personal and professional fall by confessing to an extramarital affair with a woman in Argentina. Some political observers believe that Sanford’s fall could give Democrats a leg up in the 2010 governor’s race. File photo.

Indeed, indicators are that the contest is shaping up to showcase two internecine primaries certain to garner much attention.

On Aug. 3, Gallup released polling analysis that showed the Palmetto State lacks significant solidarity when it comes to party identification. Only four states, Utah, Wyoming, Idaho and Alaska, were considered “solidly Republican” by Gallup’s findings.

Still, conventional wisdom holds that even though party affiliation in the state might be thin, those who consider themselves Republicans here vote in incredibly higher numbers than self-identified Democrats. Because of that, South Carolina Republicans fight each other with a kind of rancor usually reserved for the opposition, a sort of shark-tank politics in the state’s dominant political party power base that promises to leave the stain of a messy GOP primary.

In late June, former South Carolina Republican Party Chairman Katon Dawson told The New York Times that the atmosphere surrounding the 2010 gubernatorial primary was as rough as he’s ever seen it. “It’s mean,” Dawson said. “The long knives come out at night.”
In terms of cutlery, it’s brand name.

This election cycle, a somewhat crowded Republican field presents a galaxy of star power: S.C. Attorney General Henry McMaster; U.S. Rep. Gresham Barrett of the Third District; and state Rep. Nikki Haley of Lexington. Republican Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer is widely considered to be running for governor but has not announced that he is.

By comparison, the Democratic side has offered up candidates who lack such sharp name recognition: S.C. Sen. Vincent Sheheen of Kershaw, attorney and lobbyist Dwight Drake of Columbia, lawyer Mullins McLeod of the Lowcountry and state Sen. Robert Ford of Charleston.

S.C. Superintendent of Education Jim Rex, also a Democrat, has filed the necessary paperwork to run for governor but has not declared himself a candidate.
Sanford’s brand will help some of the contenders and hurt others.

It is nearly 10 months until the June 2010 primaries and well over a year before the general election. But that hasn’t dissuaded political handicapping as strategists on both sides debate what “the fall of Sanford” will mean for the governor’s race.

Some say the high-profile Sanford scandal, which once again yanked the state into the late-night talk-show monologues, will give the Democrats a head start. Others say it would take more than a mistress to turn the state blue. Either way, as a candidate field has congealed in both parties, each campaign will be wondering what it can do with the wayward governor.

“I think the Sanford issue is going to be a cloud over the whole GOP primary process,” says Clemson University political scientist David Woodard. “I think every candidate will have to deal with it.”

It, of course, is Sanford’s admitted affair with an Argentine woman named Maria Belen Chapur. But it might be more than that. Since the fallout of the governor’s political grave diving, evidence has emerged that illuminates a betrayal by Sanford of a political ideology he championed as a candidate and has tried to execute during his two terms as governor.

For those GOP candidates who share Sanford’s vision, it might be his unfaithfulness to that belief that will bring a greater sting to their campaign than any poison he injected into the institution of marriage.

 As a candidate for governor, Sanford mocked state workers for their travel expenses. In office he has been a flag bearer for fiscal conservatism and revved a rhetorical chainsaw at wasteful government spending. He carried two defecating piglets into the State House to protest legislative pork.

But recently published reports have shown that Sanford flew in style on overseas economic development trips and spared no expense when it came to upgrades. He’s already paid back $3,300 to the state for a taxpayer-funded trip he took in 2008 to Argentina because he visited his mistress on the excursion.

Also, it appears the self-styled thrifty governor flipped the bird to fiscal responsibility when it came to flying on state planes. Sanford used them for personal trips such as getting a haircut and attending a party for a campaign donor, according to an Associated Press investigation detailed Aug. 10.

It is that kind of hypocrisy more than anything, some believe, that might help a Democratic candidate for governor.

Carol Fowler, chairwoman of the South Carolina Democratic Party, says she is privy to recent private polling that shows a great majority of South Carolinians believe the state is on the wrong track. She would not elaborate, but adds, “It’s the responsibility of Democrats to remind people that the reason we’re on the wrong track is that we have had Republicans leading this state for so long.”

Says Woodard, who ran Barrett’s first congressional campaign in 2002, “This is a very serious election for the Republicans. By no means do they have an easy go of it. I think they’ve got the hurdles of the Sanford scandal and in the general election I think they’re going to have a very tough contest, too. It’s kind of an unusual year for the Republican field … the winner of the Republican primary is not going to get a walk.”

South Carolina is known for fractious primaries when no incumbent is running. That means this one could be a bruiser. 

In 2002, when Sanford found himself in a runoff with then-Lt. Gov. Bob Peeler of Gaffney in the Republican primary, many voters were left feeling disenfranchised. But it didn’t push them to vote Democratic.

A look at the latest disclosure reports filed by GOP candidates who are running for governor this time indicates that fissures might be spider webbing under the surface that could lead to a primary just as fractious as the one in 2002.


Republican Fundraising

According to their filings with the State Ethics Commission, Barrett, Haley and Bauer are all pulling from different parts of a deep and incestuous network of Sanford donors.

That is one sign of a divided GOP.

S.C. Attorney General Henry McMaster arguably is the frontrunner among Republican candidates for governor. File photo.

Also seeking the GOP nomination for governor, U.S. Rep. Gresham Barrett of the Third District has taken heat from some Republican faithful for voting for a federal bailout of banks and other financial institutions. Courtesy photo.

Some language in the poll might have skewed the results against Barrett, however. When respondents were asked if they wished their congressman had voted for or against a federal bailout of banks and other financial institutions, 74 percent said they opposed a bailout. “Barrett’s vote for bailout legislation is certain to be a major problem for him if he seeks to run statewide,” reads a summary of the poll.

Barrett strategist Jim Dyke called the language in the poll a “good tactic” and said “history has proven [those kinds of] polls not to be an accurate predictor.”
Be that as it may, Barrett made national news in April when he was booed by many attendees at an anti-tax “tea party” rally in Greenville as soon as he took the stage to speak. A web site friendly to McMaster posted a video of the event, which made its way to the cable news channels shortly afterward. The surly response apparently stemmed from Barrett’s support for a bailout.

It’s something his campaign has been trying to shake ever since.

The congressman has pulled in nearly $1 million in contributions for his gubernatorial run, according to his latest filings with the State Ethics Commission. He also has more than $700,000 in his federal account that he could transfer to his race for governor.
Local politicians Kirkman Finlay III and Daniel Rickennman, both members of Columbia City Council, have contributed to Barrett’s campaign.

Perhaps the GOP candidate with the most to lose from Sanford’s fall is Haley. She made big political news in 2004 when she knocked off the then-longest-serving member of the S.C. House, Larry Koon, in a heated primary runoff.

State Rep. Nikki Haley, receiving a campaign donation from former S.C. House Speaker David Wilkins in this file photo, has been one of Sanford’s closest GOP allies in the General Assembly. But in making a long-shot bid for the governor’s mansion, Haley has distanced herself from Sanford amid his implosion.

Now in her third term in the House, Haley has been one of Sanford’s closest allies in the Legislature. In September 2008, Sanford flew around the state with Haley in support of a bill she introduced to mandate roll-call voting on all proposed laws that would decide how the state spends tax dollars.

It wasn’t that particular trip on an airplane that got her the most press, though, when it came to her association with the governor. In a July 17 investigative report by the AP, Haley said she could not remember if she flew coach or first class on a 2007 trade mission to China that Sanford invited her to take with him and a South Carolina delegation at taxpayers’ expense.

“Although expense records released by the state Commerce Department and comptroller’s office do not show the type of ticket purchased, her flight cost $6,842,” read the report.
“Other state employees who went on the trip charged the state between $1,905 and $3,963 each for their flights, the expense records show.” Sanford’s ticket was more than $12,000.

Here’s why the flight trip is news:

“This kind of lavish spending with taxpayers footing the bill just doesn’t make any sense to me,” Sanford said in a campaign ad about state officials’ flight expenses when he was first running for governor. “If I become your governor, I’ll fix that problem.”

One can almost hear the ads Haley’s opponents could conjure.

Haley, who has raised more than $200,000 for the race, has distanced herself from Sanford. A day before the governor held a June 25 news conference admitting to his affair, Haley’s staff removed a photo of Sanford from the front page of her web site and a quote attributed to him describing Haley as a “terrific and inspiring choice” for governor.

“Such a cautionary move underlines the political damage Sanford has done,” wrote politico.com reporter Ben Smith.


The Bauer Quandary

For Bauer, in line to succeed Sanford should the governor depart, Sanford’s implosion created a curious situation.
“Nobody wants to become governor like this,” Bauer said in July on the FOX News program Huckabee.

Republican Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer is widely considered to be running for governor, but has yet to make it official. File photo.

Shortly after the news of Sanford’s affair broke, Bauer said that should the governor resign and Bauer take his place, he might not run for governor this time around. He said he wanted to take politics out of the process of moving the state forward. Bauer has since quietly backed away from the statement without completely ruling out a run for governor.

A longtime friend and ally of Bauer, local political strategist Rod Shealy, has run every one of Bauer’s campaigns until now. A 2007 Harper’s magazine article said many South Carolina insiders deem Shealy the “smartest and shrewdest” political consultant in the state.
“There are certainly some elements who are attempting to sweep [Sanford’s missteps] under the rug for their own political interest,” Shealy says of some who might want to keep Sanford in office in order to keep Bauer out.

Although he supports Bauer’s candidacy for governor, Shealy says he is not his consultant of record. That would be Washington, D.C.-based Chris LaCivita, who, according a New York Times report, unwittingly sent an email in July to a McMaster ally that read, “I need to get this guy [Sanford] out.” LaCivita has said he sent the message outside the context of the lieutenant governor’s duties.

But that hasn’t stopped wagging tongues in Columbia from alleging that the campaigns of McMaster, Barrett and Haley are working hard behind the scenes to keep Sanford in office to ensure that Bauer won’t have a leg up in the 2010 governor’s race. Bauer has roughly $570,000 on hand for the race.

Shealy suspects more information will come to light that might force Sanford’s resignation.
On Aug. 21, more did, when the AP reported that as governor Sanford took 35 undisclosed flights on private planes and did not identify who paid for them, despite a state law requiring him to do so.

It appears that every new story about Sanford is more damaging to the governor, Shealy says, whether it be him admitting to “crossing lines” with a handful of other women or the publishing of his travel records.

Sanford’s travel is the subject of an ongoing S.C. Senate probe.

“That stuff just has a tendency to build and build and build and we’re beginning to see a pattern that Sanford is not who the majority of the people thought he was,” Shealy says.
Responding to the latest AP story, Sanford’s office released a statement saying in part, “With the flights in question the office believed it was operating in full accord with all state laws.”

One other candidate who has announced he is running for the Republican nomination is Lowcountry state Sen. Larry Grooms of Bonneau. Grooms had $3,500 on hand for the race as of his latest filings. Conventional wisdom in South Carolina is that it takes several million dollars to compete in a governor’s race.

Democratic former Gov. Jim Hodges, who held the reigns of the state from 1998 to 2002, says the candidate who will win will be the one who could be most trusted to fix the state’s economy and move its schools forward.

Hodges managed to take the governor’s mansion by championing an education lottery, which was implemented after he defeated a re-election bid by then-Gov. David Beasley, a Republican.

But Hodges did not enjoy much bipartisan support and Sanford knocked him off after one term.

Phil Noble, a Charleston resident and head of the South Carolina New Democrats, says his party must field a vibrant, viable, exciting alternative to the Republicans or suffer defeat again.

“You can’t beat something with nothing,” Noble says. “What Sanford has done is accelerated a real trend that has been developing over the last few years that opens the door for a Democratic victory. It doesn’t ensure it, but it opens the door for it.”

S.C. Sen. Vincent Sheheen of Kershaw (center) has an overwhelming fundraising lead among Democratic candidates for governor. Courtesy photo.

A former prosecutor, Vincent Sheheen is known in the S.C. Senate for advocating state government reform. When Sheheen was at Clemson, Woodard taught him political science. Woodard calls Sheheen the frontrunner on the Democratic side and a formidable candidate against any Republican running if he wins the primary.

Among the Dems who have filed campaign contribution forms for the governor’s race, Sheheen leads overwhelmingly with almost $460,000.

McLeod is making his first bid for statewide office. His campaign has raised more than $150,000, according to his disclosure reports.

Ford, a member of the Legislative Black Caucus and an outspoken proponent of awarding tax credits to parents whose children attend private schools, has $31 — that’s right, just $31 — on hand for the race, according to his latest filings. Ford also says he wants to bring video poker back to the state; it was declared unconstitutional by the S.C. Supreme Court in 1999.

Since at least March, speculation had swirled about the prospect of a stealth Democratic candidate cloaked in the shadows of Columbia’s insider politerati who would announce a bid for governor in late summer.

That candidate turned out to be Dwight Drake. He officially announced he was running Aug. 11. Drake is an attorney with the local heavyweight Nelson, Mullins, Riley & Scarborough firm.

On behalf of Chapin high school student Casey Edwards and along with former state Democratic Party Chairman Dick Harpootlian, Drake successfully sued Sanford in June over Sanford’s decision not to accept federal stimulus money. Drake was also instrumental in bringing BMW to the state several years ago. He’s known as a fix-it man in Columbia who gets things done, but is relatively unknown outside the Capital City.

Drake’s insider status and longtime lobbying background drew quick criticism from Republicans and Democrats alike. He has represented the payday lending industry, video poker and Big Tobacco.

Drake’s initial disclosure report, filed Aug. 17, showed that he had $108,600 on hand. Drake contributed $50,000 of his own money to his campaign.

Rex, the only Democrat to currently hold statewide office, also might enter the race. He has not said whether he will do so or seek re-election as public schools chief.

As the 16th person to hold that post, Rex has expanded public school choice while fighting against vouchers and tax credits for parents who enroll their children in private schools.

Rex won his 2006 election by fewer than 500 votes out of more than 1 million cast, but he enjoys more name recognition than any of the announced Democratic candidates for governor. Rex comes equipped with a pre-existing fundraising apparatus and established Democratic support.

In more than a little touch of irony, the GOP opponent Rex defeated to become state education czar, Spartanburg businesswoman Karen Floyd, is now chairwoman of the South Carolina Republican Party.

Regardless of who wins the Republican and Democratic primaries, the general election campaign for governor promises to be a blood sport. Whether that blood will run blue or red in the end, though, still might depend on one man. And that is Mark Sanford. 

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